Abstract
AIMS: To investigate incidence, predictors and prognostic implications of longitudinal New York Heart Association (NYHA) class changes (i.e. improving or worsening vs. stable NYHA class) in heart failure (HF) across the ejection fraction (EF) spectrum. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Swedish HF Registry, 13 535 patients with EF and ≥2 NYHA class assessments were considered. Multivariable multinomial regressions were fitted to identify the independent predictors of NYHA change. Over a 1-year follow-up, 69% of patients had stable, 17% improved, and 14% worsened NYHA class. Follow-up in specialty care predicted improving NYHA class, whereas an in-hospital patient registration, lower EF, renal disease, lower mean arterial pressure, older age, and longer HF duration predicted worsening. The association between NYHA change and subsequent outcomes was assessed with multivariable Cox models. When adjusting for the NYHA class at baseline, improving NYHA class was independently associated with lower while worsening with higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and first HF hospitalization. After adjustment for the NYHA class at follow-up, NYHA class change did not predict morbidity/mortality. NYHA class assessment at baseline and follow-up predicted morbidity/mortality on top of the changes. Results were consistent across the EF spectrum. CONCLUSION: In a large real-world HF population, NYHA class trajectories predicted morbidity/mortality after extensive adjustments. However, the prognostic role was entirely explained by the resulting NYHA class, i.e. the follow-up value. Our results highlight that considering one-time NYHA class assessment, rather than trajectories, might be the preferable approach in clinical practice and for clinical trial design.