Abstract
To study the SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential in Rhode Island (RI) and its association with policy changes and mobility changes, the time-varying reproduction number, R(t), was estimated. The daily incident case counts (16 March 2020, through 30 November 2021) were bootstrapped within a 15-day sliding window and multiplied by Poisson-distributed multipliers (λ = 4, sensitivity analysis: 11) to generate 1000 estimated infection counts, to which EpiEstim was applied to generate R(t) time series. The median R(t) percentage change when policies changed was estimated. The time lag correlations were assessed between the 7-day moving average of the relative changes in Google mobility data in the first 90 days, and R(t) and estimated infection count, respectively. There were three major pandemic waves in RI in 2020-2021: spring 2020, winter 2020-2021 and fall-winter 2021. The median R(t) fluctuated within the range of 0.5-2 from April 2020 to November 2021. Mask mandate (18 April 2020) was associated with a decrease in R(t) (-25.99%, 95% CrI: -37.42%, -14.30%). Termination of mask mandates on 6 July 2021 was associated with an increase in R(t) (36.74%, 95% CrI: 27.20%, 49.13%). Positive correlations were found between changes in grocery and pharmacy, R(t) retail and recreation, transit, and workplace visits, for both R(t) and estimated infection count, respectively. Negative correlations were found between changes in residential area visits for both Rt and estimated infection count, respectively. Public health policies enacted in RI were associated with changes in the pandemic trajectory. This ecological study provides further evidence of how non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination slowed COVID-19 transmission in RI.