A tentative assessment of the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk associated with Beta SARS-CoV-2 variants in South Africa: an ecological study

南非β型SARS-CoV-2变异株传播性和致死风险变化的初步评估:一项生态学研究

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Abstract

The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Beta (B.1.351) variants challenged the control of COVID-19 pandemic. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths and SARS-CoV-2 sequences in South Africa were collected. We reconstructed the variant-specified reproduction numbers (R t) and delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to examine the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk of Beta over non-Beta variants. We estimated that Beta variants were 41% (95%CI: 16, 73) more transmissible and 53% (95%CI: 6, 108) more fatal than non-Beta variants. Higher risks of infection and fatality might lead to increasing volumes of infections and critical patients.

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