Abstract
BACKGROUND: Affecting 106 countries, malaria is a major global burden. Though intensive antimalaria efforts in Turkey have been successful in bringing down the number of cases, historically malaria was a serious public health concern. METHODS: This paper reviews the prevalence rates of malaria in Turkey over the last 85 years (1925-2010). The time series of malaria prevalence was evaluated for possible structural changes by using Chow breakpoint tests and regression models using dummy variables, with autocorrelated errors and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models to assess the impact of volatility in prevalence. RESULTS: Seventy-eight cases of malaria were diagnosed in Turkey in 2010. Malaria prevalence rates in the country show a statistically significant volatility, which underlines the fragility of efforts to control the disease. CONCLUSIONS: It is necessary to analyse the national malaria control programme to evaluate to what extent its programmatic capacity, financial resources, and political commitment are sufficient to avoid eroding the gains that have already been made and, ultimately, eradicate malaria. It is essential that there should be no lessening in the long-standing efforts to reduce malaria.