Abstract
Purpose of this study is to develope a scoring system to predict the likelihood of excess body weight loss (EBWL) ≥ 50% 6-months after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG). From April 2016 to September 2018, data was collected from 160 patients (BMI ≥ 32) who underwent primary LSG with at least 6-months follow-up. They were separated into score generation (operated by one surgeon, n = 122) and validation groups (operated by 3 different surgeons, n = 38). EBWL at 6-months ≥ 50% was considered adequate weight loss. Independent variables including age, gender, initial body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, life-style habits, percentage of EBWL and percentage of total body weight loss at 1-week, 1-month, and 3-months were analyzed with mutivariate logistic regression to generate the scoring system. The system was applied to internal and external validation groups to determine efficacy. As results, between the score generation and internal validation groups, the only significant difference in patient characteristics was in exercise participation. EBWL at 1-month > 19.5% (1 point) and EBWL at 3-months > 37.7% (2 points) were identified as independent factors to predict EBWL at 6-months ≥ 50%. When scores were > 1, the system had 94.03% positive predictive value (PPV) and 81.82% negative predictive value (NPV) (AUC: 0.923). Internal validation scores > 1 had a 95.83% PPV and 85.71% NPV (AUC: 0.975). External validation results showed 88.59% PPV and 72.00% NPV (AUC: 0.802). We concluded that this scoring system provides a reliable, objective prediction of EBWL at 6-months ≥ 50%. Patients requiring more aggressive clinical follow-up and intervention can be detected as early as 1- to 3-months after LSG.