Abstract
AIMS: To assess faecal calprotectin [Fcal] levels before and after therapeutic de-escalation, to predict clinical relapse in patients with inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. METHODS: From a prospectively maintained database, we enrolled 160 IBD patients [112 Crohn's disease/48 ulcerative colitis] in clinical remission, with Fcal measured within 8 weeks before therapeutic de-escalation. Clinical relapse was defined using the Harvey-Bradshaw index or Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index. RESULTS: Using a receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve, Fcal >100 µg/g was the best threshold to predict clinical relapse after therapeutic de-escalation (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.84). In multivariate analysis, clinical remission >6 months before therapeutic de-escalation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.57 [0.33-0.99]; p = 0.044) was associated with decreased risk of relapse, whereas current steroid medication ( = 1.67[1.00-2.79]; p <0.0001) was a risk factor. Fcal >100 µg/g was predictive of clinical relapse (HR = 3.96 [2.47-6.35]; p < 0.0001) in the whole cohort but also in patients receiving anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF] agents [n = 85 patients; p <0.0001], anti-integrins [n = 32; p = 0.003], or no biologics [n = 43; p = 0.049], or attempting to discontinue steroids [n = 37; p = 0.001]. One patient [1/98] and seven patients [7/88, 8.0%] with baseline Fcal <100 µg/g relapsed within 3 months and 6 months after therapeutic de-escalation, respectively. A total of 74 Fcal measurements were performed in 52 patients after therapeutic de-escalation. Monitoring Fcal >200 µg/g [ROC curve with AUC = 0.96] was highly predictive of clinical relapse in multivariate analysis ([HR = 31.8 [3.5-289.4], p = 0.002). Only two relapses [2/45, 4.4%] occurred within 6 months while Fcal <200 µg/g. CONCLUSIONS: Fcal level is highly accurate to predict and monitor the risk of relapse after therapeutic de-escalation in IBD patients and could be used in daily practice.