Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite the progress in research, the utility of clinical assessment for the prediction of stroke is limited. The aim herein, was to evaluate the predictive values of major ultrasound indexes of carotid artery and fat depots for stroke in patients with high and very high cardiovascular (CV) risk. METHODS: The study group included 364 patients (age: 61.3 ± 7.2 years old) with typical CV risk factors scheduled for elective coronary angiography (2012-2013). A comprehensive baseline assessment included the following ultrasound indexes: carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), extra-media thickness (EMT), epicardial (EFT) and pericardial fat thickness (PFT), abdominal subcutaneous (ASF) and visceral fat (AVF) and combined periarterial adipose tissue intima-media adventitia (PATIMA) index. Afterwards, all patients were followed for 80.9 ± 7.1 months. RESULTS: There were 23 strokes and 25 cases with new-onset atrial fibrillation during follow-up. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed, that selected clinical parameters (age, waist circumference [WC], waist-hip ratio [WHR]) and ultrasound indexes (EFT: area under curve [AUC] 0.672, p < 0.01 and PATIMA index: AUC 0.658, p < 0.01) were predictive for stroke. However, their predictive values showed no significant differences (p = NS). The baseline body mass index (BMI) was the only parameter, which showed a prediction for new-onset atrial fibrillation (BMI > 33 kg/m2: sensitivity 65%, specificity 76%). CONCLUSIONS: It was found that age, WC and echocardiographic EFT revealed significant predictive values for stroke. Both WC and EFT showed a very high NPV suggesting that they should be implemented into the clinical practice as a tool affirming a very low risk of stroke.