Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The gold standard metric for centre-level performance in orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) is 1-year post-OHT survival. However, it is unclear whether centre performance at 1 year is predictive of longer-term outcomes. This study evaluated factors impacting longer-term centre-level performance in OHT. METHODS: Patients who underwent OHT in the USA between 2010 and 2021 were identified using the United Network of Organ Sharing data registry. The primary outcome was 5-year survival conditional on 1-year survival following OHT. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models assessed the impact of centre-level 1-year survival rates on 5-year survival rates. Mixed-effect models were used to evaluate between-centre variability in outcomes. RESULTS: Centre-level risk-adjusted 5-year mortality conditional on 1-year survival was not associated with centre-level 1-year survival rates [hazard ratio: 0.99 (0.97-1.01, P = 0.198)]. Predictors of 5-year mortality conditional on 1-year survival included black recipient race, pre-OHT serum creatinine, diabetes and donor age. In mixed-effect modelling, there was substantial variability between centres in 5-year mortality rates conditional on 1-year survival, a finding that persisted after controlling for recipient, donor and institutional factors (P < 0.001). In a crude analysis using Kaplan-Meier, the 5-year survival conditional on 1-year survival was: low volume: 86.5%, intermediate volume: 87.5%, high volume: 86.7% (log-rank P = 0.52). These measured variables only accounted for 21.4% of the between-centre variability in 5-year mortality conditional on 1-year survival. CONCLUSIONS: Centre-level risk-adjusted 1-year outcomes do not correlate with outcomes in the 1- to 5-year period following OHT. Further research is needed to determine what unmeasured centre-level factors contribute to longer-term outcomes in OHT.