Abstract
BACKGRUOUND: Patients with diabetes are known to be at high risk for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), but the accurate annual risk data for new-onset ESKD is still limited. In South Korea, the prevalence and incidence of ESKD are increasing more rapidly compared to the global average. This study aimed to determine the incidence rate (IR) of ESKD by diabetes status from 2012 to 2022. METHODS: Using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service, we calculated the IR and hazard ratio (HR) for newonset ESKD in the general population. Individuals were categorized based on diabetes status into nondiabetes, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), diabetes duration <5 and ≥5 years. RESULTS: Among the participants, 67.6% were nondiabetic, 22.3% had IFG, and 10% had diabetes. In Korea, the IRs of ESKD were 139 per million population (pmp) for nondiabetes, 188 pmp for IFG, 632 pmp for diabetes <5 years, and 3,403 pmp for diabetes ≥5 years. An advanced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) category was the strongest risk factor for ESKD development. However, even in patients with normal renal function, those with long-standing diabetes had a 14-fold higher risk of ESKD compared to nondiabetic individuals. The risk of ESKD associated with diabetes increased exponentially with declining renal function. Notably, IFG showed an increasing tendency for ESKD in younger patients (<65 years) with early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD; eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m²). CONCLUSION: Longer diabetes duration amplifies ESKD risk, particularly as renal function declines. Even in patients with normal renal function, long-standing diabetes significantly increases ESKD risk, while IFG is associated with elevated risk only in younger individuals with early-stage CKD.