Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The present study was designed to establish and evaluate an early prediction model of epilepsy after encephalitis in childhood based on electroencephalogram (ECG) and clinical features. METHODS: 255 patients with encephalitis were randomly divided into training and verification sets and were divided into postencephalitic epilepsy (PE) and no postencephalitic epilepsy (no-PE) according to whether epilepsy occurred one year after discharge. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen the risk factors for PE. The identified risk factors were used to establish and verify a model. RESULTS: This study included 255 patients with encephalitis, including 209 in the non-PE group and 46 in the PE group. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis showed that hemoglobin (OR = 0.968, 95% CI = 0.951-0.958), epilepsy frequency (OR = 0.968, 95% CI = 0.951-0.958), and ECG slow wave/fast wave frequency (S/F) in the occipital region were independent influencing factors for PE (P < 0.05).The prediction model is based on the above factors: -0.031 × hemoglobin -2.113 × epilepsy frequency + 7.836 × occipital region S/F + 1.595. In the training set and the validation set, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model for the diagnosis of PE was 0.835 and 0.712, respectively. CONCLUSION: The peripheral blood hemoglobin, the number of epileptic seizures in the acute stage of encephalitis, and EEG slow wave/fast wave frequencies can be used as predictors of epilepsy after encephalitis.