Abstract
PURPOSE: Falls have significant financial impact. Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy is associated with an increased risk of falls and fractures. Exercise programs have been shown to decrease risk of falls in the elderly population and are recommended by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force for patients over age 65 to reduce falls. Our study aimed to explore the potential financial benefit of implementing three different Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recommended exercise-based interventions for fall prevention (Tai Chi, Stepping On, and Otago Exercise Program) in ≥65-year-old patients on PPI therapy. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to predict the financial implications of fall-related outcomes in the study population. Net cost of the intervention was deducted from the financial savings predicted for fall avoidance relative to the fall reduction conferred by the intervention. Sensitivity analysis was performed on a range of odds ratios between falling and PPI use. RESULTS: Exercise-based interventions were found to offer financial savings when fall reduction rates exceeded 5%, irrespective of variable odds ratios between PPI use and fall rate. Hypothetical implementation of an exercise-based intervention for PPI users ≥65 years of age was estimated to result in annual fall- and fracture-related savings ranging from $10,317.35 to $18,766.28 per individual. Findings suggested an estimated annual reduction in U.S. health care costs of $18 billion to $85 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an exercise-based fall prevention program for elderly PPI users represents a possible strategy to mitigate health care costs in the United States. Future prospective studies are recommended.