Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for almost a quarter of the global Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The emissions associated with AFOLU activities are projected to increase in the future. The agriculture sector in Thailand accounted for 21.9% of the country's net GHG emissions in 2013. This study aims to estimate the GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector and mitigation potential at various carbon prices during 2015-2050. This study uses an AFOLU bottom-up (AFOLUB) model to estimate GHG emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and then identifies no-regret options, i.e. countermeasures that are cost-effective without any additional costs. In addition, the study also identifies countermeasure options and mitigation potential at various carbon prices. RESULTS: Results show that emissions from the agriculture sector in the BAU will increase from 45.3 MtCO(2)eq in 2015 to 63.6 MtCO(2)eq in 2050, whereas net emission from the AFOLU will be 8.3 MtCO(2)eq in 2015 and 24.6 MtCO(2)eq in 2050. No-regret options would reduce emissions by 6.1 and 6.8 MtCO(2)eq in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The carbon price above $10 per tCO(2)eq will not be effective to achieve significant additional mitigation/sequestration. CONCLUSIONS: In 2050, no-regret options could reduce total AFOLU emissions by 27.5%. Increasing carbon price above $10/tCO(2)eq does not increase the mitigation potential significantly. Net sequestration (i.e., higher carbon sequestration than GHG emissions) in AFOLU sector would be possible with the carbon price. In 2050, net sequestration would be 1.2 MtCO(2)eq at carbon price of $5 per tCO(2)eq, 21.4 at $10 per tCO(2)eq and 26.8MtCO(2)eq at $500 per tCO(2)eq.