Abstract
BACKGROUND: The literature indicates that cardiovascular disease (CVD; including stroke), older age, and availability of health care resources affect COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs). The cumulative effect of COVID-19 CFRs in global CVD populations and the extrapolated effect on access to health care services in the CVD population in Canada are not fully known. In this study we explored the relationships of factors that might affect COVID-19 CFRs and estimated the potential indirect effects of COVID-19 on Canadian health care resources. METHODS: Country-level epidemiological data were analyzed to study the correlation, main effect, and interaction between COVID-19 CFRs and: (1) the proportion of the population with CVD; (2) the proportion of the population 65 years of age or older; and (3) the availability of essential health services as defined by the World Health Organization Universal Health Coverage index. For indirect implications on health care resources, estimates of the volume of postponed coronary artery bypass grafting, percutaneous coronary intervention, and valve surgeries in Ontario were calculated. RESULTS: Positive correlations were found between COVID-19 CFRs and: (1) the proportion of the population with CVD (ρ = 0.40; P = 0.001); (2) the proportion of the population 65 years of age or older (ρ = 0.43; P = 0.0005); and (3) Universal Health Coverage index (ρ = 0.27; P = 0.03). For every 1% increase in the proportion of the population 65 years of age or older or proportion of the population with CVD, the COVID-19 CFR was 9% and 19% higher, respectively. Approximately 1252 procedures would be postponed monthly in Ontario because of current public health measures. CONCLUSIONS: Countries with more prevalent CVD reported higher COVID-19 CFRs. Strain on health care resources is likely in Canada.