Abstract
IMPORTANCE: There exists substantial heterogeneity in outcomes within T stages for patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a customized generative pretrained transformer model, trained on a comprehensive dataset with more than 1 trillion parameters and equipped with relevant focused context and retrieval augmented generation (RAG), could excel in aggregating and interpreting vast quantities of data to develop a novel class-based risk stratification system that outperforms the current standards. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: To build the RAG knowledge base, a systematic review of the literature was conducted that addressed risk factors for poor outcomes in cSCC. Using the RAG-enabled generative pretrained transformer (GPT) model, we developed a novel class-based risk stratification system that assigned point values for risk factors, culminating in a GPT-based prognostication system called the artificial intelligence-derived risk score (AIRIS). The system's performance was validated on a combined prospective and retrospective cohort of 2379 primary cSCC tumors (1996-2023) with at least 36 months of follow-up, against Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) and American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Manual, eighth edition (AJCC8) systems in stratifying risk for locoregional recurrence (LR), nodal metastasis (NM), distant metastasis (DM), and disease-specific death (DSD). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Performance metrics evaluated included distinctiveness, homogeneity, and monotonicity, as defined by the AJCC8, as well as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and concordance. RESULTS: The median age at diagnosis was 73 (IQR, 64-81) years, with 38.5% female patients and 61.5% male patients. The AIRIS prognostication system demonstrated superior sensitivity across all outcomes (LR, 49.1%; NM, 73.7%; DM, 82.5%; and DSD, 72.2%) and the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (LR, 0.69; NM, 0.81; DM, 0.85; and DSD, 0.80), indicating significantly enhanced discriminative capability compared with the BWH and AJCC8 systems. While all systems were comparably distinctive, the AIRIS prognostication system consistently demonstrated the lowest proportion of tumors exhibiting poor outcomes in low-risk categories, suggesting its improved homogeneity and monotonicity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this diagnostic study suggest that the AIRIS system outperforms the existing BWH and AJCC8 prognostication systems, potentially providing a more effective tool for predicting poor outcomes in cSCC. This study illustrates the potential of large language models in refining prognostic tools, offering implications for treating patients with cancer.