Abstract
INTRODUCTION: In 2024, the vaccination strategy against pneumococcal disease in the Dutch paediatric population was changed from the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) (PCV10) to a 15-valent PCV (PCV15) under a 2 + 1 schedule. We aimed to assess whether switching from PCV15 under a 2 + 1 schedule to 20-valent PCV (PCV20) under a 3 + 1 schedule in the Dutch paediatric national immunisation programme (NIP) would yield economic savings and health benefits. METHODS: A multiple-cohort population model with an annual cycle and 10-year time horizon was adapted for the Dutch population from a societal perspective. Discounting was set at 3.0% and 1.5% for costs and benefits, respectively. Medical and societal costs were calculated, along with cases of invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal disease, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for PCV15 and PCV20, from which, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY was calculated for PCV20 versus PCV15 to determine the economic benefits of PCV20. The model assumptions were tested in probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses, as well as a series of scenario analyses. RESULTS: Both medical and societal cost of disease were substantially lower with PCV20 versus PCV15 (incremental cost-savings of €130,113,010 and €61,593,168, respectively), with total incremental cost-savings of €29,365,696 when considering the cost of the vaccination programme. With an overall QALY gain of 33,232, the ICER per QALY placed PCV20 as the dominant strategy, as it was both more effective and less costly than PCV15. PCV20 was estimated to result in 57,657 fewer pneumococcal disease cases across invasive and non-invasive disease and 1561 fewer disease-related deaths. The sensitivity and scenario analyses demonstrated the robustness of the model results. CONCLUSION: This cost-effectiveness analysis demonstrated that switching from PCV15 2 + 1 to PCV20 3 + 1 in the Dutch paediatric NIP would reduce both the clinical burden and projected costs of pneumococcal disease over 10 years.