Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an uncommon, severe, life-threatening disease primarily affecting infants, with potential lifelong sequelae. Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) serogroup B (MenB) causes most IMD cases in Germany, many of which can be prevented with four-component MenB (4CMenB) vaccination. The potential public health and economic impact of introducing routine 4CMenB infant vaccination in Germany was assessed. METHODS: A dynamic transmission-based cost-effectiveness model adapted for Germany assessed the impact of infant 4CMenB universal mass vaccination (UMV) versus no vaccination. The model included the latest real-world evidence on vaccine effectiveness, the comprehensive burden of disease on patients (sequelae) and their family (quality of life impact), comprehensive German IMD costs, and vaccination uptake assumptions. RESULTS: The largest public health impact was predicted in children: a rapid decline, 5 years after UMV implementation, of 39.9% (34.7%) for MenB (all IMD) cases aged 0-4 years and 42.4% (36.8%) in infants. Over lifetime (100-year time horizon), 4CMenB could prevent 3154 MenB (3303 all IMD) cases, 291 MenB (304 all IMD) deaths and 1370 MenB (1435 all IMD) long-term sequelae. 4CMenB saved 25,878 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), at a cost of €188,762 per QALY gained in the base case (societal perspective including lost productivity). Scenarios including potential Nm carriage protection (enabling herd protection) or societal preferences for the prevention of severe diseases led to more cost-effective results, while a scenario excluding IMD impact beyond the patient with increased discounting of vaccination health benefits produced less cost-effective results. CONCLUSIONS: MenB IMD is a vaccine-preventable disease. This analysis for Germany can inform decision-makers on the potential impact of introducing infant 4CMenB UMV. The program is predicted to rapidly produce health benefits (reduction in child cases, deaths and sequelae) at a cost per QALY to society of around €190,000 (base case), decreasing to around €78,000 when considering societal preferences and IMD underreporting.