Abstract
Vaccination, especially with multiple doses, provides substantial population-level protection against COVID-19, but emerging variants of concern (VOC) and waning immunity represent significant risks at the individual level. Here we identify correlates of protection (COP) in a multicenter prospective study following 607 healthy individuals who received three doses of the Pfizer-BNT162b2 vaccine approximately six months prior to enrollment. We compared 242 individuals who received a fourth dose to 365 who did not. Within 90 days of enrollment, 239 individuals contracted COVID-19, 45% of the 3-dose group and 30% of the four-dose group. The fourth dose elicited a significant rise in antibody binding and neutralizing titers against multiple VOCs reducing the risk of symptomatic infection by 37% [95%CI, 15%-54%]. However, a group of individuals, characterized by low baseline titers of binding antibodies, remained susceptible to infection despite significantly increased neutralizing antibody titers upon boosting. A combination of reduced IgG levels to RBD mutants and reduced VOC-recognizing IgA antibodies represented the strongest COP in both the 3-dose group (HR = 6.34, p = 0.008) and four-dose group (HR = 8.14, p = 0.018). We validated our findings in an independent second cohort. In summary combination IgA and IgG baseline binding antibody levels may identify individuals most at risk from future infections.