Abstract
AIMS: Despite advances in interventional treatment strategies, atrial fibrillation (AF) remains associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Fibrotic atrial myopathy (FAM) is a main factor for adverse outcomes of AF-ablation, but complex to diagnose using current methods. We aimed to derive a scoring system based entirely on easily available clinical parameters to predict FAM and ablation-success in everyday care. METHODS: In this multicenter, prospective study, a new risk stratification model termed AF-SCORE was derived in 220 patients undergoing high-density left-atrial(LA) voltage-mapping to quantify FAM. AF-SCORE was validated for FAM in an external mapping-validation cohort (n = 220) and for success following pulmonary vein isolation (PVI)-only (without adjunctive left- or right atrial ablations) in an external outcome-validation cohort (n = 518). RESULTS: FAM was rare in patients < 60 years (5.4%), but increased with ageing and affected 40.4% (59/146) of patients ≥ 60 years. Sex and AF-phenotype had additional predictive value in older patients and remained associated with FAM in multivariate models (odds ratio [OR] 6.194, p < 0.0001 for ≥ 60 years; OR 2.863, p < 0.0001 for female sex; OR 41.309, p < 0.0001 for AF-persistency). Additional clinical or diagnostic variables did not improve the model. AF-SCORE (+ 1 point for age ≥ 60 years and additional points for female sex [+ 1] and AF-persistency [+ 2]) showed good discrimination to detect FAM (c-statistic 0.792) and predicted arrhythmia-freedom following PVI (74.3%, 54.7% and 45.5% for AF-SCORE ≤ 2, 3 and 4, respectively, and hazard ratio [HR] 1.994 for AF-SCORE = 3 and HR 2.866 for AF-SCORE = 4, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Age, sex and AF-phenotype are the main determinants for the development of FAM. A low AF-SCORE ≤ 2 is found in paroxysmal AF-patients of any age and younger patients with persistent AF irrespective of sex, and associated with favorable outcomes of PVI-only. Freedom from arrhythmia remains unsatisfactory with AF-SCORE ≥ 3 as found in older patients, particularly females, with persistent AF, and future studies investigating adjunctive atrial ablations to PVI-only should focus on these groups of patients.