Abstract
Background Cardiorespiratory fitness is a powerful predictor of health outcomes that is currently underused in primary prevention, especially in young adults. We sought to develop a blood-based biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness that is easily translatable across populations. Methods and Results Maximal effort cardiopulmonary exercise testing for quantification of cardiorespiratory fitness (by peak oxygen uptake) and profiling of >200 metabolites at rest were performed in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study; 2016-2019). A metabolomic fitness score was derived/validated in the FHS and was associated with long-term outcomes in the younger CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study. In the FHS (derivation, N=451; validation, N=914; age 54±8 years, 53% women, body mass index 27.7±5.3 kg/m(2)), we used LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression to develop a multimetabolite score to predict peak oxygen uptake (correlation with peak oxygen uptake r=0.77 in derivation, 0.61 in validation; both P<0.0001). In a linear model including clinical risk factors, a ≈1-SD higher metabolomic fitness score had equivalent magnitude of association with peak oxygen uptake as a 9.2-year age increment. In the CARDIA study (N=2300, median follow-up 26.9 years, age 32±4 years, 44% women, 44% Black individuals), a 1-SD higher metabolomic fitness score was associated with a 44% lower risk for mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.56 [95% CI, 0.47-0.68]; P<0.0001) and 32% lower risk for cardiovascular disease (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.55-0.84]; P=0.0003) in models adjusted for age, sex, and race, which remained robust with adjustment for clinical risk factors. Conclusions A blood-based biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness largely independent of traditional risk factors is associated with long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in young adults.