Abstract
Background and purpose - Up to 20% of patients are dissatisfied after total knee arthroplasty (TKA), mainly because of pain and restricted physical function. We developed a prediction model for 6-month knee range of motion, knee pain, and walking limitations in patients undergoing TKA surgery. Patients and methods - We performed a prospective cohort study of 4,026 patients who underwent elective, primary TKA between July 2013 and July 2017. Candidate predictors included demographic, clinical, psychosocial, and preoperative outcome measures. The outcomes of interest were (i) knee extension and flexion range of motion, (ii) knee pain rated on a 5-point ordinal scale, and (iii) self-reported maximum walk time at 6 months post TKA. For each outcome, we fitted a multivariable proportional odds regression model with bootstrap internal validation. Results - At 6 months post TKA, around 5% to 20% of patients had a flexion contracture ³ 10°, range of motion < 90°, moderate to severe knee pain, or a maximum walk time £ 15 minutes. The model c-indices (the probabilities to correctly discriminate between 2 patients with different levels of follow-up TKA outcomes) when evaluating these patients were 0.71, 0.79, 0.65, and 0.76, respectively. Each postoperative outcome was strongly influenced by the same outcome measure obtained preoperatively (all p-values < 0.001). Additional statistically significant predictors were age, sex, race, education level, diabetes mellitus, preoperative use of gait aids, contralateral knee pain, and psychological distress (all p-values < 0.001). Interpretation - We have developed models to predict, for individual patients, their likely post-TKA levels of knee extension and flexion range of motion, knee pain, and walking limitations. After external validation, they can potentially be used preoperatively to identify at-risk patients and to help patients set more realistic expectations about surgical outcomes.