Abstract
While the overall incidence of gastric cancer has fallen, presumably to a large extent in parallel with Helicobacter pylori infection, the occurrence of the diffuse histologic type is thought to have remained more stable, questioning the aetiologic role of H. pylori. We have analysed the incidence of the intestinal and diffuse types separately, while considering subsite (cardia/non-cardia). With an extensive prospective effort we identified all incident cases of gastric adenocarcinoma (n = 1337) in a well-defined Swedish population (1.3 million) 1989-1994. Tumours were uniformly classified histologically and topographically. Subgroup-specific incidence rates were computed and modelled using multivariate logistic regression. Site-specific trends were clearly discrepant. The overall incidence of adenocarcinoma distal to the gastric cardia declined by 9% (95% confidence interval 6-12%) per year, while cardia cancer remained stable. Thus, the feared rise in cardia cancer could not be confirmed despite clear site-specific trend discrepancies. The intestinal type predominated, especially in high-risk areas, while diffuse tumours prevailed among young patients and women. Both main histologic types of gastric adenocarcinoma declined markedly, at similar rapidity, and with no significant trend differences between the intestinal and diffuse types, even after multivariate adjustments. Our results are consistent with an aetiologic role of environmental factors including H. pylori also for diffuse-type gastric cancers.