Abstract
For birds, maintaining an optimal nest temperature is critical for early-life growth and development. Temperatures deviating from this optimum can affect nestling growth and fledging success with potential consequences on survival and lifetime reproductive success. It is therefore particularly important to understand these effects in relation to projected temperature changes associated with climate change.Targets set by the 2015 Paris Agreement aim to limit temperature increases to 2°C, and, with this in mind, we carried out an experiment in 2017 and 2018 where we applied a treatment that increased Great Tit Parus major nest temperature by approximately this magnitude (achieving an increase of 1.6°C, relative to the control) during the period from hatching to fledging to estimate how small temperature differences might affect nestling body size and weight at fledging and fledging success.We recorded hatching and fledging success and measured skeletal size (tarsus length) and body mass at days 5, 7, 10, and 15 posthatch in nestlings from two groups of nest boxes: control and heated (+1.6°C).Our results show that nestlings in heated nest boxes were 1.6% smaller in skeletal size at fledging than those in the cooler control nests, indicating lower growth rates in heated boxes, and that their weight was, in addition, 3.3% lower.These results suggest that even fairly small changes in temperature can influence phenotype and postfledging survival in cavity-nesting birds. This has the potential to affect the population dynamics of these birds in the face of ongoing climatic change, as individuals of reduced size in colder winters may suffer from decreased fitness.