Abstract
BACKGROUND: Deceased donor kidney offers are frequently declined multiple times before acceptance for transplantation, despite significant organ shortage and long waiting times. Whether the number of times a kidney has been declined, reflecting cumulative judgments of clinicians, is associated with long-term transplant outcomes remains unclear. METHODS: In this national, retrospective cohort study of deceased donor kidney transplants in the United States from 2008 to 2015 (n=78,940), we compared donor and recipient characteristics and short- and long-term graft and patient survival outcomes grouping by the sequence number at which the kidney was accepted for transplantation. We compared outcomes for kidneys accepted within the first seven offers in the match-run, after 8-100 offers, and for hard-to-place kidneys distinguishing those requiring >100 and >1000 offers before acceptance. RESULTS: Harder-to-place kidneys had lower donor quality and higher rates of delayed graft function (46% among kidneys requiring >1000 offers before acceptance versus 23% among kidneys with ≤7 offers). In unadjusted models, later sequence groups had higher hazard of all-cause graft failure, death-censored graft failure, and patient mortality; however, these associations were attenuated after adjusting for Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI). After adjusting for donor factors already taken into consideration during allocation, and recipient factors associated with long-term outcomes, graft, and patient survival outcomes were not significantly different for the hardest-to-place kidneys compared with the easiest-to-place kidneys, with the exception of death-censored graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16, 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.28). CONCLUSION: Late sequence offers may represent missed opportunities for earlier successful transplant for the higher-priority waitlisted candidates for whom the offers were declined.