Abstract
BACKGROUND: A statistical model is essential in determining the appropriate predictive indicators for therapies in many types of cancers. Predictors have been compared favorably to the traditional systems for many cancers. Thus, this study has been proposed as a new standard approach. A recent study on the clinical efficacy of Atractylodes lancea (Thunb) DC. (AL) revealed the higher clinical benefits in patients with advanced-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) treated with AL compared with standard supportive care. We investigated the relationships between clinical efficacy and pharmacokinetic parameters of serum bioactivity of AL and its active constituent atractylodin and determined therapeutic ranges. METHODS: Group 1 of advanced-stage ICC patients received daily doses of 1000 mg of standardized extract of the capsule formulation of AL (CMC-AL) for 90 days. Group 2 received daily doses of 1000 mg of CMC-AL for 14 days, followed by 1500 mg for 14 days, and 2000 mg for 62 days. Group 3 (control group) received palliative care. Cox proportional hazard model and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) were applied to determine the cut-off values of AUC(0-inf), C(max), and C(avg) associated with therapeutic outcomes. Number needed to treat (NNT) and relative risk (RR) were also applied to determine potential predictors. RESULTS: The AUC(0-inf) of total AL bioactivity of >96.71 µg hour/ml was identified as a promising predictor of disease prognosis, that is, progression-free survival (PFS) and disease control rate (DCR). C(max) of total AL bioactivity of >21.42 was identified as a predictor of the prognosis of survival. The therapeutic range of total AL bioactivity for PFS and DCR is 14.48 to 65.8 µg/ml, and for overall survival is 10.97 to 65.8 µg/ml. Conclusions: The predictors of ICC disease prognosis were established based on the pharmacokinetics of total AL bioactivity. The information could be exploited to improve the clinical efficacy of AL in patients with advanced-stage ICC. These predictors will be validated in a phase 2B clinical study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: TCTR20210129007 (TCTR: www.clinicaltrials.in.th).