Abstract
BACKGROUND: Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, with its greatest burden on the elderly and patients with chronic co-morbidities in the intensive care unit (ICU). An accurate prognosis is essential for decision-making during pandemic as well as interpandemic periods. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine prognostic factors influencing short term outcome of critically ill patients with confirmed influenza virus infection. Baseline characteristics, laboratory and diagnostic findings, ICU interventions and complications were abstracted from medical records using standard definitions and compared between hospital survivors and non-survivors with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: 111 patients met the inclusion criteria. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) complicated ICU course in 25 (23%) of the patients, with mortality rate of 52%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the following predictors of hospital mortality: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III predicted mortality (Odds ratio [OR] 1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.1 for 10% increase), ARDS (OR 7.7, 95% CI 2.3-29) and history of immunosuppression (OR 7.19, 95% CI 1.9-28). CONCLUSIONS: APACHE III predicted mortality, the development of ARDS and the history of immunosuppression are independent risk factors for hospital mortality in critically ill patients with confirmed influenza virus infection.