Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer detection had led to organ-preserving endoscopic therapy. Endoscopy is a suitable method of early diagnosis of UGI malignancies. In Iran, exclusion of malignancy is the most important indication for endoscopy. This study is designed to see whether using alarm symptoms can predict the risk of cancer in patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 3414 patients referred to a tertiary gastrointestinal (GI) clinic in Isfahan, Iran, from 2009 to 2016 with dyspepsia, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and alarm symptoms, such as weight loss, dysphagia, GI bleeding, vomiting, positive familial history for cancer, and anorexia. Each patient had been underwent UGI endoscopy and patient data, including histology results, had been collected in the computer. We used logistic regression models to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of each alarm symptoms. RESULTS: A total of 3414 patients with alarm symptoms entered in this study, of whom 72 (2.1%) had an UGI malignancy. According to the logistic regression model, dysphagia (P < 0.001) and weight loss (P < 0.001) were found to be significant positive predictive factors for malignancy. Furthermore, males were in a significantly higher risk of developing UGI malignancy. Through receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve (AUC) with adequate overall calibration and model fit measures, dysphagia and weight loss as a related cancer predictor had a high diagnostic accuracy (accuracy = 0. 72, AUC = 0. 881). Using a combination of age, alarm symptoms will lead to high positive predictive value for cancer. CONCLUSION: We recommend to do an early endoscopy for any patient with UGI symptoms and to take multiple biopsies from any rudeness or suspicious lesion, especially for male gender older than 50, dysphagia, or weight loss.