Abstract
Handball is an Olympic team sport characterized by changes of ball possession, where teams either play on offense or defense. In this paper, we model momentary strength in handball as scoring probabilities based on a double moving average. In this cross-sectional observational study, the aim was to describe the dynamics of momentary strength in handball from both theoretical and practical perspectives. Momentary strength can be used to further characterize the nuances of the sport by identifying different phases in a match. The momentary strength model was applied to the 2019 International Handball Federation (IHF) Men's World Championship. Ninety-six games were analyzed. The results showed that momentary strength could be used to better understand the dynamic interaction process between two teams. The Spearman correlation between the teams' median momentary strength and their final ranks at the Championship was -0.830. Virtually each team faced phases in its matches with a momentary scoring probability lower than 0.10 and with 4 exceptions also higher than 0.90. Twelve out of the 24 teams showed phases with a momentary scoring probability of exactly 0 as well as exactly 1.