Abstract
Study Type--Prognosis (case series). Level of Evidence 4. What's known on the subject? And what does the study add? Nomograms are available that combine clinical and biopsy findings to predict the probability of pathologically insignificant prostate cancer in patients with clinically low-risk disease. Based on data from patients with Gleason score 6, clinical stage ≤ T2a and PSA <20 ng/ml, our group developed the first nomogram models for predicting insignificant prostate cancer that incorporated clinical data, detailed biopsy data and findings from MRI or MRI/MRSI (BJU Int. 2007;99(4):786-93). When tested retrospectively, these MR models performed significantly better than standard clinical models with and without detailed biopsy data. We prospectively validated the previously published MR-based nomogram models in a population of patients with Gleason score 6, clinical stage ≤ T2a and PSA <10 ng/ml. Based on data from this same population, we also developed two new models for predicting insignificant prostate cancer that combine MR findings and clinical data without detailed biopsy data. Upon initial testing, the new MR models performed significantly better than a clinical model lacking detailed biopsy data. OBJECTIVES: • To validate previously published nomograms for predicting insignificant prostate cancer (PCa) that incorporate clinical data, percentage of biopsy cores positive (%BC+) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or MRI/MR spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) results. • We also designed new nomogram models incorporating magnetic resonance results and clinical data without detailed biopsy data. Nomograms for predicting insignificant PCa can help physicians counsel patients with clinically low-risk disease who are choosing between active surveillance and definitive therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: • In total, 181 low-risk PCa patients (clinical stage T1c-T2a, prostate-specific antigen level <10 ng/mL, biopsy Gleason score of 6) had MRI/MRSI before surgery. • For MRI and MRI/MRSI, the probability of insignificant PCa was recorded prospectively and independently by two radiologists on a scale from 0 (definitely insignificant) to 3 (definitely significant PCa). • Insignificant PCa was defined on surgical pathology. • There were four models incorporating MRI or MRI/MRSI and clinical data with and without %BC+ that were compared with a base clinical model without %BC and a more comprehensive clinical model with %BC+. Prediction accuracy was assessed using areas under receiver-operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: • At pathology, 27% of patients had insignificant PCa, and the Gleason score was upgraded in 56.4% of patients. • For both readers, all magnetic resonance models performed significantly better than the base clinical model (P ≤ 0.05 for all) and similarly to the more comprehensive clinical model. CONCLUSIONS: • Existing models incorporating magnetic resonance data, clinical data and %BC+ for predicting the probability of insignificant PCa were validated. • All MR-inclusive models performed significantly better than the base clinical model.