Abstract
IMPORTANCE: The current TNM staging system may not provide adequate information for prognostic purposes and to assess the potential benefits of chemotherapy for patients with stage III colon cancer. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a pathomics signature to estimate prognosis and benefit from chemotherapy using hematoxylin-eosin (H-E)-stained slides. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective prognostic study used data from consecutive patients with histologically confirmed stage III colon cancer at 2 medical centers between January 2012 and December 2015. A total of 114 pathomics features were extracted from digital H-E-stained images from Nanfang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China, and a pathomics signature was constructed using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression model in the training cohort. The associations of the pathomics signature with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated. Patients at the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, formed the validation cohort. Data analysis was conducted from September 2022 to March 2023. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The prognostic accuracy of the pathomics signature as well as its association with chemotherapy response were evaluated. RESULTS: This study included 785 patients (mean [SD] age, 62.7 [11.1] years; 437 [55.7%] male). A pathomics signature was constructed based on 4 features. Multivariable analysis revealed that the pathomics signature was an independent factor associated with DFS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.46 [95% CI, 2.89-4.13]; P < .001) and OS (HR, 2.78 [95% CI, 2.34-3.31]; P < .001) in the training cohort. Incorporating the pathomics signature into pathomics nomograms resulted in better performance for the estimation of prognosis than the traditional model in a concordance index comparison in the training cohort (DFS: HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.86-0.89] vs HR, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.71-0.75]; P < .001; OS: HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.84-0.86] vs HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.72-0.76]; P < .001) and validation cohort (DFS: HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.82-0.85] vs HR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.67-0.72]; P < .001; OS: HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.82] vs HR, 0.69 [0.67-0.72]; P < .001). Further analysis revealed that patients with a low pathomics signature were more likely to benefit from chemotherapy (eg, combined cohort: DFS: HR, 0.44 [95% CI, 0.28-0.69]; P = .001; OS: HR, 0.43 [95% CI, 0.29-0.64]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that a pathomics signature could help identify patients most likely to benefit from chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer.