A longitudinal study of violent armed conflict and economic health nexus in Nigeria

尼日利亚暴力武装冲突与经济健康关系的纵向研究

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Abstract

Violent armed conflict befell Nigeria in 2009 in form of Boko Haram terrorism and insurgency, and has been extended and sustained in all nooks and crannies of the country by banditry, kidnapping for ransom, herder-farmer clash and unknown gunmen attack or ethnic militia. On the other hand, between 2009 and 2024, Nigeria has suffered two economic recessions. This study interrogated the association between the sustained violent armed conflict with the attendant environmental shock and insecurity with the related deaths and economic health in Nigeria (2004-2020), covering the pre-Boko Haram years (2004-2007) and the Boko Haram operation years (2009-2019). The longitudinal study regressed the secondary data on violent armed conflict related deaths in Nigeria against % value added to gross domestic product by agriculture for 2004-2020 and against the prevalence of undernourishment for 2004-2019. Results showed that increase in battle related deaths led to statistically significant decrease in value added to national productivity by agriculture, forestry, and fishing. Prevalence of undernourishment increased significantly with increase in battle-related deaths. The study concluded that violent armed conflicts had significant negative impacts on environmental security in Nigeria and recommended that policymaking and direction be guided as such in order to stem the tide.

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