Abstract
Objective: Providing country-level estimates for prevalence rates of Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD), COVID-19 exposure and food insecurity (FI) and assessing the role of persistent threats to survival-exemplified by exposure to COVID-19 and FI-for the mental health crisis in Africa. Methods: Original phone-based survey data from Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Uganda (12 consecutive cross-sections in 2021; n = 23,943) were analyzed to estimate prevalence rates of GAD. Logistic regression models and mediation analysis using structural equation models identify risk and protective factors. Results: The overall prevalence of GAD in 2021 was 23.3%; 40.2% in Mozambique, 17.0% in Sierra Leone, 18.0% in Tanzania, and 19.1% in Uganda. Both COVID-19 exposure (OR(adj.) 1.4; CI 1.3-1.6) and FI (OR(adj) 3.2; CI 2.7-3.8) are independent and significant predictors of GAD. Thus, the impact of FI on GAD was considerably stronger than that of COVID-19 exposure. Conclusion: Persistent threats to survival play a substantial role for mental health, specifically GAD. High anxiety prevalence in the population requires programs to reduce violence and enhance social support. Even during a pandemic, addressing FI as a key driver of GAD should be prioritized by policymakers.