Abstract
In the oligotrophic sunlit ocean, the most abundant free-living planktonic bacterial lineages evolve convergently through genome reduction. The cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus responsible for 10% global oxygen production is a prominent example. The dominant theory known as "genome streamlining" posits that they have extremely large effective population sizes (Ne) such that selection for metabolic efficiency acts to drive genome reduction. Because genome reduction largely took place anciently, this theory builds on the assumption that their ancestors' Ne was similarly large. Constraining Ne for ancient ancestors is challenging because experimental measurements of extinct organisms are impossible and alternatively reconstructing ancestral Ne with phylogenetic models gives large uncertainties. Here, we develop a new strategy that leverages agent-based modeling to simulate the changes in the genome-wide ratio of radical to conservative nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution rate (dR/dC) in a possible range of Ne in ancestral populations. This proxy shows expected increases with decreases of Ne only when Ne falls to about 10 k - 100 k or lower, magnitudes characteristic of Ne of obligate endosymbiont species where drift drives genome reduction. Our simulations therefore strongly support a scenario where the primary force of Prochlorococcus genome reduction is drift rather than selection.