Abstract
Management of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) might be improved by a biomarker to predict whether a selected medication is likely to lead to remission. We previously reported on a quantitative electroencephalogram-based biomarker, the Antidepressant Treatment Response (ATR) index, that integrated recordings at baseline and after one week of treatment. The present study prospectively tested whether treatment directed by the biomarker increased the likelihood of remission; we hypothesized that continued treatment with a drug predicted to lead to remission (i.e., high ATR values) would be associated with better outcomes than if the drug was predicted not to lead to remission (i.e., low ATR values). We enrolled 180 adult outpatients with unipolar MDD from the community. After one week of escitalopram treatment to determine the biomarker, stratified randomization (high vs. low ATR) was used to assign subjects to either continued escitalopram or a switch to bupropion as a blinded control condition, for seven additional weeks. For the 73 evaluable subjects assigned to continued escitalopram treatment, the remission rate was significantly higher for those in whom ATR had predicted remission versus non-remission (60.4% vs. 30.0%, respectively, p = 0.01). Accuracy was enhanced by combining 1-week depressive symptom change with ATR (68.6% vs 28.9%). This prospective validation study supports further development of the ATR biomarker, alone or together with early symptom change, to improve care by identifying individuals unlikely to remit with their current treatment, and support the decision to change treatment after one week rather than after failing a full, prolonged course of medication.