Abstract
BACKGROUND: Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is an effective treatment for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), but its long-term efficacy is limited by poor patient adherence. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for CPAP non-adherence in patients with OSA. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a retrospective study. A cohort of 695 Danish patients with OSA were followed for 3 years after initiating CPAP therapy. Independently associated factors were evaluated using multivariate Cox regression, and then nomogram predicting adherence to CPAP use were constructed. The discrimination of the nomogram was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Pulmonary disease, oxygen desaturation index (ODI), Epworth Sleepiness Score (ESS) and severity of OSA were identified as predictors and incorporated into the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination with concordance index in training dataset (0.73, 95% CI: 0.69-0.78) and validation dataset (0.72, 95% CI: 0.66-0.79). ROC curve, calibration curve, and DCA indicated the nomogram had good clinical utility. CONCLUSION: This study provided an effective nomogram for predicting CPAP non-adherence in OSA patients.