Abstract
China has made great progress in the electrification of passenger cars, and the sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have exceeded 10%. We applied a life-cycle assessment (LCA) method to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions of the past (2015), present (2020), and future (2030) BEVs, incorporating China's carbon peaking and neutrality policies, which would substantially reduce emissions from the electricity, operation efficiency, metallurgy, and battery manufacturing industries. BEVs can reduce cradle-to-grave (C2G) CO(2) emissions by ∼40% compared with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) on the national-average level in 2020, far more significant than the benefit in 2015. Improved BEV operating efficiency was the largest factor driving emission reductions from 2015 to 2020. Looking forward to 2030, China's BEVs equipped with nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries can achieve a further 43% of CO(2) emissions reductions, among which 51 g km(-1) of reduction is from the well-to-wheels (WTW) stage majorly owing to the further cleaner electricity mix, while other vehicle-cycle benefits are mainly from the advancement of battery (12 g km(-1)) and related metal materials (5 g km(-1)). We highlight the importance of better material efficiency and synchronized decarbonization through the automotive industrial chain in promoting climate mitigation from transport activities.