Abstract
We investigate the demographic and population health implications of gene-environment interactions (GxE) in the case of body mass index (BMI) and obesity. We seek to answer two questions: (a) what is the first-order impact of GxE effects on BMI and probability of obesity, e.g. the direct causal effect of G in different E's? and (b) how large is the impact of GxE effects on second-order health outcomes associated with BMI and obesity, such as type 2 diabetes (T2D) and disability? In contrast to most of the literature that focuses on estimating GxE effects, we study the implications of GxE effects for population health outcomes that are downstream of a causal chain that includes the target phenotype (in this case BMI) as the initial cause. To limit the scope of the paper, we focus on environments defined by birth cohorts. However, extensions to other environments (education, socioeconomic status (SES), early conditions, and physical settings) are straightforward.