Abstract
Recent electoral shifts toward populist parties may have been partly driven by deteriorating health, although empirical evidence on this link is primarily confined to ecological designs. We performed both ecological- and individual-level analyses to investigate whether changes in health are associated with changes in the support for populist parties. Data were used on the strategic Dutch case, the only liberal democracy featuring leftist and rightist populist politicians in parliament for over a decade. We used: (a) fixed effects models to examine whether changes in the standardized mortality ratios and self-assessed health (SAH) in municipalities were associated with changes in the populist vote share in four parliamentary elections (2006/2010/2012/2017); and (b) 10 waves of panel data collected in 2008 to 2018 to investigate if changes in individual-level SAH were linked to movement in the sympathy, intention to vote, and actual voting for populist parties. The ecological analyses showed that: changes in municipality mortality ratios were positively linked to changes in the vote share of right-wing populist parties, while changes in the prevalence of less-than-good SAH were negatively associated with changes in the vote share for left-wing populist parties. The individual-level analyses identified no such associations. Our findings imply that support for populist parties may be driven by health concerns at the ecological, but not the individual, level. This suggests that sociotropic (e.g. perceiving population health issues as a social problem), but not egotropic (e.g. relating to personal health issues like experienced stigma), concerns may underlie rising support for populist parties.