Abstract
BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate echocardiographic parameters to predict calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) progression. CAVD ranges from aortic valve sclerosis (ASc) with no functional impairment of the aortic valve to severe aortic stenosis (AS). It remains uncertain, which patients with ASc have a particularly high risk of developing AS. METHODS: We included a total of 153 patients with visual signs of ASc and peak flow velocity (Vmax) below 2.5 m/s at baseline echocardiography. Progression of CAVD to AS was defined as an increase in Vmax ≥ 2.5 m/s with a delta of ≥ 0.1 m/s; stable ASc was defined as Vmax below 2.5 m/s and a delta < 0.1 m/s. Finally, we compared clinical and echocardiographic parameters between these two groups. RESULTS: The mean age at baseline was 73.5 ( ± 8.2) years and 66.7% were of male sex. After a mean follow-up of 1463 days, 57 patients developed AS, while 96 patients remained in the ASc group. The AS group showed significantly more calcification (p < 0.001) and thickening (p < 0.001) of the aortic valve cusps at baseline, although hemodynamics showed no evidence of AS in both groups (ASc group: Vmax 1.6 ± 0.3 m/s versus AS group: Vmax 1.9 ± 0.3 m/s; p < 0.001). Advanced calcification (odds ratio [OR]: 4.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-15.9; p = 0.009) and a cusp thickness > 0.26 cm (OR: 16.6, 95% CI: 5.4-50.7; p < 0.001) were independent predictors for the development of AS. CONCLUSIONS: The acquisition of simple echocardiographic parameter may help to identify patients with particularly high risk of developing AS.