A CpG Methylation Signature as a Potential Marker for Early Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma From HBV-Related Liver Disease Using Multiplex Bisulfite Sequencing

Aberrant methylation of CpG sites served as an epigenetic marker for building diagnostic, prognostic, and recurrence models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Our model based on the six-CpG-scorer was a reliable diagnosis tool for early HCC from HBVLD. The usage of the MBS method can realize large-scale detection of CpG sites in clinical diagnosis of early HCC and benefit the majority of patients.

Using Illumina 450K and EPIC Beadchip, we identified 34 CpG sites in peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) DNA that were differentially methylated in early HCC versus HBV-related liver diseases (HBVLD). We employed multiplex bisulfite sequencing (MBS) based on next-generation sequencing (NGS) to measure methylation of 34 CpG sites in PBMC DNA from 654 patients that were divided into a training set (n = 442) and a test set (n = 212). Using the training set, we selected and built a six-CpG-scorer (namely, cg14171514, cg07721852, cg05166871, cg18087306, cg05213896, and cg18772205), applying least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. We performed multivariable analyses of four candidate risk predictors (namely, six-CpG-scorer, age, sex, and AFP level), using 20 times imputation of missing data, non-linearly transformed, and backwards feature selection with logistic regression. The final model's regression coefficients were calculated according to "Rubin's Rules". The diagnostic accuracy of the model was internally validated with a 10,000 bootstrap validation dataset and then applied to the test set for validation.

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the model was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85) and it showed good calibration and decision curve analysis. Using enhanced bootstrap validation, adjusted C-statistics and adjusted Brier score were 0.809 and 0.199, respectively. The model also showed an AUROC value of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.88) of diagnosis for early HCC in the test set. Conclusions: Our model based on the six-CpG-scorer was a reliable diagnosis tool for early HCC from HBVLD. The usage of the MBS method can realize large-scale detection of CpG sites in clinical diagnosis of early HCC and benefit the majority of patients.