Abstract
AIM: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have elevated risk of death from cardiovascular disease (CVD). A low serum insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) level is known to predict higher risk for all-cause mortality in incident dialysis patients, although it is unknown whether IGF-1 predicts cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of maintenance hemodialysis patients followed up for 5 years. Serum IGF-1 levels were measured at baseline, and patients were divided into IGF-1 tertiles. The key outcomes were all-cause mortality, a composite of new CVD, and death after new CVD events. Additional outcomes were hospitalization for infection and subsequent death. Association was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: In the 516 patients that were analyzed, we identified 106 all-cause deaths, 190 new CVD events, and 61 subsequent deaths. In addition, there were 169 hospitalizations for infection and 47 subsequent deaths. The risk of all-cause death was the highest in the lowest IGF-1 tertile, and this association remained significant in multivariable-adjusted models. Regarding CVD outcomes, IGF-1 was not associated with new CVD events but significantly associated with subsequent death in adjusted models. Similarly, IGF-1 was not an independent predictor of hospitalization for infection, but it predicted subsequent death. CONCLUSIONS: A low IGF-1 level was not a significant predictor of new CVD events but an independent predictor of subsequent death in hemodialysis patients. Since similar associations with infection outcomes were observed, IGF-1 may be a biomarker of fragility or frailty in this population.