Abstract
BACKGROUND: Frailty in older people is a rising global health concern; therefore, monitoring prevalence estimates and presenting projections of future frailty are important for healthcare planning. AIM: To present current prevalence estimates of frailty and pre-frailty and future projections according to both dominant frailty models in a large population-based observational study including adults ≥ 70 years in Norway. METHODS: In this population-based observational study, we included 9956 participants from the HUNT4 70 + study, conducting assessments at field stations, homes, and nursing homes. Frailty was assessed using Fried criteria and a 35-item frailty index (HUNT4-FI). Inverse probability weighting and calibration using post-stratification weights and aggregated register data for Norway according to age, sex, and education ensured representativeness, and population projection models were used to estimate future prevalence. RESULTS: According to Fried criteria, the current prevalence rates of frailty and pre-frailty in people ≥ 70 years were 10.6% and 41.9%, respectively, and for HUNT4-FI 35.8% and 33.2%, respectively. Compared to previous European estimates we identified higher overall frailty prevalence, but lower prevalence in younger age groups. Projections suggest the number of Norwegian older adults living with frailty will close to double by 2040. CONCLUSION: Frailty in older people in Norway is more prevalent than previous European estimates, emphasising the imperative for effective interventions aimed to delay and postpone frailty and ensure healthcare system sustainability in an ageing population. Future planning should consider the great heterogeneity in health and functioning within the 70 + population.