Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is important to identify the relevant parameters of physical performance to prevent early functional decline and to prolong independent living. The aim of this study is to describe the development of physical performance in a healthy community-dwelling older cohort aged 70+ years using comprehensive assessment over two years and to subsequently identify the most relevant predictive tests for physical decline to minimize assessment. METHODS: Physical performance was measured by comprehensive geriatric assessment. Predictors for the individual decline of physical performance by Principal Component and k-means Cluster Analysis were developed, and sensitivity and specificity determined accordingly. RESULTS: 251 subjects (Ø 75.4 years) participated in the study. Handgrip strength was low in 21.1%. The follow-up results of tests were divergent. Handgrip strength [- 16.95 (SD 11.55)] and the stair climb power test (power) [- 9.15 (SD 16.84)] yielded the highest percentage changes. Four most relevant tests (handgrip strength, stair climb power time, timed up & go and 4-m gait speed) were identified. A predictor based on baseline data was determined (sensitivity 82%, specificity 96%) to identify subjects characterized by a high degree of physical decline within two years. DISCUSSION: Although the cohort of older adults is heterogeneous, most of the individuals in the study exhibited high levels of physical performance; only a few subjects suffered a relevant decline within the 2-year follow-up. Four most relevant tests were identified to predict relevant decline of physical function. CONCLUSION: In spite of ceiling effects of the geriatric assessment in high-performers, we assume that it is possible to predict an individual's risk of physical decline within 2 years with four tests of a comprehensive geriatric assessment.