Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Assessing the cumulative degree of bowel injury in ileal Crohn's disease (CD) is difficult. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) methodologies for automated estimation of cumulative ileal injury on computed tomography-enterography (CTE) to help predict future bowel surgery. METHODS: Adults with ileal CD using biologic therapy at a tertiary care center underwent ML analysis of CTE scans. Two fellowship-trained radiologists graded bowel injury severity at granular spatial increments along the ileum (1 cm), called mini-segments. ML segmentation methods were trained on radiologist grading with predicted severity and then spatially mapped to the ileum. Cumulative injury was calculated as the sum (S-CIDSS) and mean of severity grades along the ileum. Multivariate models of future small bowel resection were compared with cumulative ileum injury metrics and traditional bowel measures, adjusting for laboratory values, medications, and prior surgery at the time of CTE. RESULTS: In 229 CTE scans, 8,424 mini-segments underwent analysis. Agreement between ML and radiologists injury grading was strong (κ = 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.79-0.81) and similar to inter-radiologist agreement (κ = 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.88). S-CIDSS (46.6 vs 30.4, P = 0.0007) and mean cumulative injury grade scores (1.80 vs 1.42, P < 0.0001) were greater in CD biologic users that went to future surgery. Models using cumulative spatial metrics (area under the curve = 0.76) outperformed models using conventional bowel measures, laboratory values, and medical history (area under the curve = 0.62) for predicting future surgery in biologic users. DISCUSSION: Automated cumulative ileal injury scores show promise for improving prediction of outcomes in small bowel CD. Beyond replicating expert judgment, spatial enterography analysis can augment the personalization of bowel assessment in CD.