Abstract
HIV-1 mother-to-child transmission (HIV-1 MTCT), is an important cause of children mortality worldwide. Brazil has been traditionally praised by its HIV/Aids program, which provides free-of-charge care for people living with HIV-1. Using public epidemiology and demographic databases, we aimed at modeling HIV-1 MTCT prevalence in Brazil through the years (1994-2016) and elaborate a statistical model for forecasting, contributing to HIV-1 epidemiologic surveillance and healthcare decision-making. We downloaded sets of live births and mothers' data alongside HIV-1 cases notification in children one year old or less. Through time series modeling, we estimated prevalence along the years in Brazil, and observed a remarkable decrease of HIV-1 MTCT between 1994 (10 cases per 100,000 live births) and 2016 (five cases per 100,000 live births), a reduction of 50%. Using our model, we elaborated a prognosis for each Brazilian state to help HIV-1 surveillance decision making, indicating which states are in theory in risk of experiencing a rise in HIV-1 MTCT prevalence. Ten states had good (37%), nine had mild (33%), and eight had poor prognostics (30%). Stratifying the prognostics by Brazilian region, we observed that the Northeast region had more states with poor prognosis, followed by North and Midwest, Southeast and South with one state of poor prognosis each. Brazil undoubtedly advanced in the fight against HIV-1 MTCT in the past two decades. We hope our model will help indicating where HIV-1 MTCT prevalence may rise in the future and support government decision makers regarding HIV-1 surveillance and prevention.