Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) is a clinical tool widely used to predict progression from chronic kidney disease (CKD) to kidney failure. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of age on KFRE performance in advanced CKD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 1701 consecutive patients referred to an advanced CKD clinic in Ottawa, Canada, between 2010 and 2018. Patients were categorized by age as follows: <60, 60 to 69, 70 to 79, and ≥80 years. Calibration plots compared the predicted (through the KFRE) and observed incidence of kidney failure. Concordance statistic (C-statistic) evaluated discrimination. Cumulative incidence of kidney failure was compared between models that accounted for the competing risk of death and those that did not. RESULTS: We found that the KFRE overestimated the risk of kidney failure among the oldest subset of patients (≥80 years) with absolute and relative differences of 7.6% and 22.8%, respectively, over 2 years (P = 0.047), and 24.7% and 40.4%, respectively, over 5 years (P < 0.001). The degree of overestimation in the elderly was most pronounced among those with the highest predicted risks for kidney failure. KFRE discrimination was acceptable (C-statistic 0.70-0.79) across all age categories. The cumulative incidence of kidney failure was overestimated in models that did not account for the competing risk of death, and this overestimation was more pronounced with older age. CONCLUSION: The KFRE overestimates kidney failure risk among elderly patients with advanced CKD. This overestimation relates to the increasing competing risk of death with older age, particularly over longer time horizons.