Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels have been associated with the progression of kidney impairment among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but only a few studies have investigated the association between serum NT-proBNP levels and incident CKD in general populations. METHODS: A total of 2486 Japanese community-dwelling residents ≥40 years of age without CKD at baseline were followed up by repeated annual health examinations for 10 years. Participants were divided into 4 groups according to serum NT-proBNP levels. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73m(2) or the presence of proteinuria. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of CKD. Linear mixed models were used to compare changes in eGFR. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 800 participants developed CKD. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for developing CKD were 1.00 (reference), 1.32 (1.11-1.57), 1.40 (1.10-1.78), and 1.94 (1.38-2.73) for serum NT-proBNP levels of <55, 55-124, 125-299, and ≥300 pg/ml, respectively (P for trend <0.001). The decline of eGFR during the follow-up was significantly more rapid among participants with higher serum NT-proBNP levels (P for trend <0.001). Adding serum NT-proBNP to the model composed of known risk factors for CKD improved the predictive ability for developing CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum NT-proBNP levels were associated with greater risks of developing CKD and greater decline in eGFR. Serum NT-proBNP could be a useful biomarker for assessing the future risk of CKD in a general Japanese population.