Rising cancer burden among older adults in Saudi Arabia: A longitudinal analysis of incidence rates by demographics, 2013-2022

沙特阿拉伯老年人癌症负担日益加重:2013-2022年按人口统计学特征划分的发病率纵向分析

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To analyze cancer incidence trends in Saudi Arabia from 2013 to 2022 by age group, gender, and nationality, identify significant temporal patterns or shifts, and determine the most prevalent cancer types across age groups and years. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from the Saudi Cancer Registry, which included 185,567 reported cancer cases between 2013 and 2022. Descriptive statistics, generalized estimating equation (GEE), and Joinpoint regression were used to examine the crude incidence rate (CIR), age-specific incidence rate (AIR), and age-standardized rate (ASR) across demographic subgroups. RESULTS: Saudi nationals had higher cancer rates than non-Saudi residents, with CIR of 66.86 and 66.28 per 100,000 population in 2021-2022. Saudi women showed higher CIR and ASR values with rapid AIR increase, though rates among men exceeded women's after age 70. Among Saudis, breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers were most common, while leukemia (32.8%), brain/CNS cancers, and Hodgkin's Lymphoma dominated in children. The GEE model showed women's AIR exceeded men's by 88 per 100,000 (p=0.0115), and Saudis exceeded non-Saudis by 90 per 100,000 (p=0.0095). Joinpoint regression found Saudis has significant post-2020 cancer rate increases (APC: men 21%, women 16.5%). CONCLUSION: These findings indicate the need for targeted cancer prevention strategies in high-risk groups like older people especially women. Addressing breast and colorectal cancers may help reduce cancer burden. The sharp post-2020 increase in cancer among Saudi nationals warrants investigation of contributing factors.

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