Abstract
To elucidate the relevance of gut dysbiosis in Parkinson's disease (PD) in disease progression, we made random forest models to predict the progression of PD in two years by gut microbiota in 165 PD patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of gut microbiota-based models for Hoehn & Yahr (HY) stages 1 and 2 were 0.799 and 0.705, respectively. Similarly, gut microbiota predicted the progression of Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) III scores in an early stage of PD with AUROC = 0.728. Decreases of short-chain fatty acid-producing genera, Fusicatenibacter, Faecalibacterium, and Blautia, as well as an increase of mucin-degrading genus Akkermansia, predicted accelerated disease progression. The four genera remained unchanged in two years in PD, indicating that the taxonomic changes were not the consequences of disease progression. PD patients with marked gut dysbiosis may thus be destined to progress faster than those without gut dysbiosis.