Improving the Effectiveness of Sample Size Re-Estimation: An Operating Characteristic Focused, Hybrid Frequentist-Bayesian Approach

提高样本量重新估计的有效性:一种以操作特性为中心的混合频率-贝叶斯方法

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Abstract

Sample size re-estimation (SSR) is perhaps the most used adaptive procedure in both frequentist and Bayesian adaptive designs for clinical trials. The primary focus of all current frequentist and Bayesian SSR procedures is type I error control. We propose a hybrid frequentist-Bayesian SSR approach that focuses on optimizing operating characteristics (OC), which uses simulations to investigate the associated OC and adjusts accordingly. The hybrid approach incorporates the Bayesian predictive power into the frequentist framework of SSR. Simulations show that the hybrid approach can substantially outperform popular frequentist type error-focused SSR procedure. The hybrid approach can substantially improve the effectiveness of SSR using Bayesian predictive power.

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