Abstract
Scenarios for shipping traffic in the Gulf of Bothnia (GoB) by 2030 are described in order to identify the main factors that should be taken into account when preparing a Maritime Spatial Plan (MSP) for the area. The application of future research methodology to planning of marine areas was also assessed. The methods include applying existing large scale quantitative scenarios for maritime traffic in the GoB and using real-time Delphi in which an expert group discussed different factors contributing to future maritime traffic in the GoB to find out the probability and significance of the factors having an impact on maritime traffic. MSP was tested on transnational scale in the Bothnian sea area as a pilot project.